Sunday, February 18, 2007
I remember hearing about the Curse of Tippecanoe back in 5th grade during the 1980 Presidential campaign, and so far, it was eerily accurate as a prediction of Presidential deaths while in office.
That is, until Ronald Reagan in 1981 (and unbeknownst to me, George W. Bush also survived an attempt).
So it was amazing when I came across An Algorithm for Determining the Winners of U.S. Presidential Elections (link via The Old New Thing) that has correctly predicted every Presidential election.
And it's so easy you can put it in a spread sheet.
So, I decided to see who currently has the best shot at becoming the next President of the United States. I found a list of current Presidential candidates and applied the formula.
|Democratic Candidates (*has not officially filed)|
|Chris Doss||0||0||0||Child of Senator, Divorced||0|
|Republican Candidates (*has not officially filed)|
|John H. Cox||0||0||0||0|
|Mitt Romney||0||0||4||First Mormon||-66|
|Rudy Giuliani*||0||0||0||Divorced, Special Prosecutor||-220|
|Tom Tancredo*||10||0||0||First Evangelical||-100|
But it's a total score of both the Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates that win, not just the Presidential candidate (so there's a small outside chance that Giuliani could win, if he could find a Vice-Presidential candidate who is a corporate banker, president of a college and the child of a US Senator). I also think it's too early to really tell who will win at this stage; I'll know more after the caucuses and primaries of next year.